Amid global economic scares, demand for air freight starts to decline

A potential weakening of the air freight market coincides with growing concern in the aviation industry that surging passenger traffic, which has reduced airlines’ reliance on cargo revenue, may be fleeting. 

The strong cargo demand that helped passenger-deprived airlines stay afloat during the pandemic is showing signs of softening amid growing economic uncertainty, in part, fuelled by decades of high inflation.

The Baltic Air Freight Index, which shows weekly transactional rates for general cargo fell 8.7% last week, while the airlines’ group IATA said on Monday, June 20 that freight revenue generated by carriers this year would fall by 6.4%.

Amid global economic scares, demand for air freight starts to decline

Qatar Airways’ Chief Executive Akbar Al Bakar warned on Monday, June 20 that inflation was expected to weaken demand for air freight and subsequently put downward pressure on yields.

“There will be a downturn in business (activity) and when there is a downturn in business, people don’t buy stuff that we normally carry as cargo,” he told reporters at an industry meeting in Doha.

Edward Bell, an economist at Dubai lender Emirates NBD, described consumers and corporates as facing a “kind of vortex of price pressures” that they would increasingly be sensitive to over the rest of the year.

The freight market – both air and ocean – has seen rates skyrocket since the pandemic amid huge capacity cuts that have left limited available space compared to cargo being shipped.

Korean Air Chief Executive Walter Cho said freight rates had softened but were far higher than they were before the pandemic when there was much more capacity.

“Demand is weak especially since China is basically shut down right now. We expect it to come back soon. I expect the cargo market to be sustainable until next year at least.”

Credit Agricole CIB’s Global Head of Asset Finance Group Jose Abramovici said the sector was likely to remain profitable for several more years given how high air freights are today.

Cathay Pacific Chief Executive Augustus Tang said cargo load factors were not as high as they had been because more air freight capacity was being added to the market. “If there is any moderation it would be really small but the trend is still really positive,” he said.

Cathay Pacific Chief Executive Augustus Tang said cargo load factors were not as high as they had been because more air freight capacity was being added to the market.

The freight market – both air and ocean – has seen rates skyrocket since the pandemic amid huge capacity cuts that have left limited available space compared to cargo being shipped.

ALSO READ – The Ukraine-Russia crisis harms air cargo operations

But with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine compounding the economic damage from the pandemic, a vaulting U.S. dollar and decades-high inflation tightening financial conditions, the global economy is now heading towards a slowdown.

But now that the economic outlook has turned negative, with growth slowing in China, inflation rising globally and retailers like Target and Walmart trying to dispose of excess inventory, the outlook is very different from just six months ago.

United Airlines Chief Executive Scott Kirby said freight rates could moderate as more capacity is added but that cargo demand would stay “really robust” due to supply chain challenges.

The World Bank this month slashed its global economic growth forecast by 1.2% points to 2.9% for 2022 and warned many countries were likely to face recessions.

United Airlines Chief Executive Scott Kirby said freight rates could moderate as more capacity is added but that cargo demand would stay “really robust” due to supply chain challenges.

Emirates cargo boss Nabil Sultan, in an interview, said rates would remain where they are for the next six to eight months given the surge in fuel prices, while demand was likely to still outstrip supply even as more capacity is being added.

However, he warned that increased operating costs, including fuel and labour, were making some routes almost unviable to operate.

Korean Air and Emirates are both evaluating Airbus and Boeing’s 777x freighters for new orders, their executives said.

Emirates is adding more freight routes into China this month in anticipation of an increase in production which has taken a hit under Beijing’s zero-COVID policy.

ALSO READ – Emirates threatens to cancel the Boeing 777X orders if delivery postponed beyond 2023

Korean Air and Emirates are both evaluating Airbus and Boeing’s 777x freighters for new orders, their executives said.

Condition of the Indian carriers

IndiGo, India’s largest airline, looks close to inducting its first freighter plane as it seeks to capture the boom in air cargo driven by the pandemic.

IndiGo looks close to inducting its first freighter plane as it seeks to capture the boom in air cargo driven by the pandemic.

ALSO READ – First CarGo freighter of IndiGo to be delivered soon; spotted at Seletar Airport

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd., which operates IndiGo, said in 2021 that it planned to source four converted A321ceo planes, which can each carry 27 tonnes, for full-time cargo operations on both domestic and international routes.

The conversion of the A321ceo into a freight aircraft, which IndiGo is expected to induct in May, is taking place in Singapore.

SpiceJet has secured RA3 (Regulated Agent Third country) and ACC3 (Air Cargo or Mail Carrier operating into the Union from a Third Country Airport) certifications.

ALSO READ – SpiceJet obtains certifications for international cargo operations in the EU and UK

Meanwhile, SpiceJet has secured RA3 (Regulated Agent Third country) and ACC3 (Air Cargo or Mail Carrier operating into the Union from a Third Country Airport) certifications.

The certifications will allow SpiceJet to not only transport mail and cargo on its airplanes under its Air Operator Permit but also handle cargo and mail of other airlines for transporting to or via the European Union and the United Kingdom, airline officials said.

(With Inputs from Reuters)

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